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On 12 February 2026, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the UK’s trade data for December 2025, offering the final snapshot of the year’s cross-border goods flows. The headline figures reveal a mixed picture: goods imports edged upward while goods exports contracted, and the UK-US trade corridor produced some of the month’s most notable movements. A supplementary analysis of UK-US trade impacts was also scheduled for publication on 24 February 2026, promising additional context for one of the UK’s most strategically significant bilateral trade relationships.<\/p>\n
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For importers, exporters, freight forwarders, and customs professionals, these figures are not merely statistical footnotes. Each shift in import and export volumes translates directly into the volume and complexity of customs declarations, the exposure to duty and VAT liabilities, and the operational demands placed on compliance teams. Understanding what the data shows \u2014 and what it signals for the months ahead \u2014 is essential for businesses that want to stay ahead of regulatory and commercial change.<\/p>\n
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| Note<\/strong>: <\/span>The ONS UK trade release covers goods trade across all categories. A dedicated analysis of UK-US trade was scheduled for 24 February 2026. Businesses with significant US trade exposure should monitor both publications and review their customs declaration workflows accordingly.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n [\/vc_column_text][vc_text_separator title=””][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n The Data at a Glance<\/strong><\/h4>\nThe chart below illustrates the key percentage changes reported by the ONS for December 2025.<\/p>\n [\/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image=”3411″ img_size=”full”][vc_text_separator title=””][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n Decomposing the Flows<\/strong><\/h4>\nBreaking the headline figures down into their component parts helps identify the underlying commercial and regulatory dynamics. The divergence between EU and non-EU trade flows is particularly relevant for customs professionals who manage distinct declaration processes for each corridor.<\/p>\n [\/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image=”3412″ img_size=”full”][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n The bifurcation between EU and non-EU import performance is significant. Goods sourced from outside the EU \u2014 including from trading partners across Asia, the Americas, and the wider world \u2014 drove the overall import increase, while EU-origin flows contracted. This pattern has implications for customs workloads: non-EU imports require full customs declarations, including commodity classification, customs valuation, and applicable duty calculations, whereas EU-origin goods benefit from zero-tariff treatment under the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), though full declaration requirements remain in force.<\/p>\n On the export side, the 3.2% monthly contraction is broad-based, affecting both EU and non-EU destinations. This underlines that current export headwinds are not corridor-specific but reflect wider demand conditions. Businesses managing export declarations should ensure their commodity descriptions, origin documentation, and export licence records remain current and accessible.<\/p>\n [\/vc_column_text][vc_text_separator title=””][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n Bilateral Focus<\/strong><\/h4>\nThe United States remains one of the UK’s most important bilateral trading partners, and December 2025 produced some of its most notable monthly movements. The 9.7% fall in goods imported from the United States \u2014 equivalent to a \u00a30.5 billion decline \u2014 stands out as the month’s sharpest bilateral shift. At the same time, UK exports to the United States increased by 2.5%, a figure that the ONS noted included movements in precious metals.<\/p>\n The divergence between import and export performance in this corridor reflects a combination of factors including demand cycles, commodity-specific movements, and the broader economic backdrop. Importantly, the ONS scheduled a dedicated UK-US trade impact analysis for 24 February 2026, which is expected to shed further light on the structural and cyclical forces at play.<\/p>\n [\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n For customs teams, a sharp movement in import volumes from the United States has direct operational implications. When US-origin goods flow into the UK, they attract Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) duty rates \u2014 there is no preferential free trade agreement between the UK and the United States \u2014 and require full import declarations submitted to HMRC through the Customs Declaration Service (CDS). A sustained decline in US imports would reduce declaration volumes in this corridor, while a recovery would require scalable filing capacity.<\/p>\n [\/vc_column_text][vc_text_separator title=””][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n Compliance Perspective<\/strong><\/h4>\nTrade statistics are the aggregate of countless individual customs declarations. Every shipment counted in the ONS figures passed through a customs compliance process \u2014 or should have. For the businesses and customs professionals responsible for that process, understanding the macro picture helps contextualise operational planning and capacity management.<\/p>\n [\/vc_column_text][vc_toggle title=”Rising non-EU imports: more declarations, more complexity”]<\/p>\n Non-EU imports require full customs declarations for every consignment, including accurate commodity classification under the UK Integrated Tariff, customs valuation built on the transaction value method, and determination of applicable duty rates. As non-EU import volumes grow, so does the workload on import declaration teams. Businesses sourcing from countries such as China, the United States, and others beyond the EU should ensure their declaration workflows are scalable and that their commodity classifications are reviewed regularly to reflect any product or regulatory changes.<\/p>\n [\/vc_toggle][vc_toggle title=”EU imports still require full declarations under post-Brexit rules”]<\/p>\n A critical reminder: the fall in EU imports does not reduce the declaration requirement. All goods arriving from the EU into Great Britain are treated as imports under post-Brexit rules and must be declared via CDS, even when no tariffs apply under the TCA. Origin proof \u2014 typically a supplier statement on the commercial invoice or a separate statement on origin \u2014 must be retained to support any duty-free claim. Businesses that have grown accustomed to EU trade without declaration obligations prior to Brexit should ensure their compliance frameworks are robust.<\/p>\n [\/vc_toggle][vc_toggle title=”Export contraction and the importance of export declaration accuracy”]<\/p>\n A broad-based decline in goods exports to both EU and non-EU destinations does not diminish the need for accurate export declarations. Each export from the UK requires a customs declaration submitted through CDS, and incorrect or incomplete filings can result in delayed consignments, reputational damage with overseas buyers, and potential HMRC enquiries. Businesses managing lower export volumes in the current environment should use the opportunity to audit their existing declaration data, review commodity descriptions for accuracy, and ensure that any required export licences are current.<\/p>\n [\/vc_toggle][vc_toggle title=”UK-US movements and MFN duty management”]<\/p>\n Without a free trade agreement between the UK and the United States, all goods moving in either direction attract MFN duty rates. For businesses whose sourcing from or selling into the US has been affected by the December 2025 movements, accurate duty calculation and customs valuation are critical. The transaction value \u2014 the price actually paid or payable for goods sold for export to the UK, plus includable costs to the UK frontier \u2014 forms the basis of import duty and VAT calculations. Errors in valuation, whether through omission of freight and insurance costs or inclusion of post-import domestic costs, create exposure to HMRC revaluation and penalties.<\/p>\n [\/vc_toggle][vc_text_separator title=””][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n Filing with Customs Declarations UK<\/strong><\/h4>\nUnderstanding trade data is one thing; translating that understanding into accurate, timely, and compliant customs declarations is another. This is precisely where the\u00a0Customs Declarations UK (CDUK)<\/a>\u00a0platform delivers operational value \u2014 regardless of whether your trade volumes are rising, falling, or shifting between corridors.<\/p>\n CDUK is a cloud-based customs filing solution that integrates directly with HMRC’s Customs Declaration Service. It is trusted by hundreds of businesses and processes thousands of declarations monthly, supporting import declarations, export declarations, CDS declarations, ENS (Entry Summary) declarations, and a range of special procedures. The platform is built for importers and exporters of every scale \u2014 from businesses filing their first import declaration to high-volume logistics operators managing thousands of entries.<\/p>\n [\/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image=”3414″ img_size=”full”][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n For businesses whose import volumes from non-EU sources are growing \u2014 as the December 2025 data suggests \u2014 CDUK’s bulk upload capability via CSV and Excel, and its integration options for ERP and logistics systems, provide the scalability needed to handle rising declaration volumes without proportional increases in manual effort. For those managing declining export volumes, the platform’s template and clone functionality ensures that each export declaration is filed with the same accuracy and consistency as the last, preserving audit readiness even during quieter trading periods.<\/p>\n CDUK was developed in close consultation with HMRC and integrates with the Customs Declaration Service to ensure that every\u00a0import declaration<\/a>,\u00a0export declaration<\/a>, and\u00a0ENS declaration<\/a>\u00a0meets current regulatory requirements. As trade flows evolve \u2014 whether driven by macro data like the ONS release or by commercial decisions at the company level \u2014 CDUK provides the compliance infrastructure to keep declarations accurate, submissions timely, and records complete.<\/p>\n [\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n
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